Granted, there isn’t a lot of hard first-quarter economic data to hang our hat on at this point. With the U.S. government shutdown entering day 28, more and more important U.S. economic indicator releases are being delayed by the shutdown.
Only the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve are still releasing data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Commerce Department have all halted their releases due to the government closure.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 18.Key observations:
- We’ve cut our Q1 U.S. GDP forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7, to reflect lost economic activity due to the prolonged government shutdown, as well as lost consumer spending resulting from the negative wealth effects from the Q4 stock market selloff.
- We are penciling in a 0.3 percentage point hit to GDP from the government shutdown alone.
- The measurable drop in household wealth will crimp consumer spending, especially for high-income households that are exposed to the stock market volatility.
The real world economic impacts from the recent stock market carnage could be substantial. Learn more in Scott Anderson’s U.S. Outlook.Read More ›
Despite the quarter point Fed funds rate hike that occurred at the end of the December FOMC Meeting, the minutes of that meeting reveal the dovish tilt that was already beginning to influence the FOMC’s view of the likely extent and timing of further interest rate hikes.Read More ›
The December employment report exceeded all analysts’ expectations. Scott Anderson examines the employment data in his latest U.S. Outlook.Read More ›
The partial government closure could have both direct and indirect impacts on businesses of all sizes.Read More ›