U.S. Outlook: Market fears of near-term recession overblown

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

As recently as September when U.S. stocks were hitting new record highs, economic optimism was rampant and, in retrospect, probably overdone.

Busy work environment with stock traders concentrating on their computers.In my view, the markets are once again overreacting.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 14.

Key observations:
  • Yes, the global economy is in what appears to be a synchronized slowdown.
  • Tighter monetary policy and financial conditions, fading fiscal stimulus, and slowing global growth will all conspire to slow down the economic freight train that has been the U.S. economy this year.
  • We forecast another quarter-point rate hike from the FOMC next week, bringing the fed funds target rate to a 2.25% to 2.50% range.
  • A recession may come by sometime in 2020, but this episode of market volatility isn’t it.

Read my full report.

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Clean energy innovator & job creator wins 2018 Philanthropy Award

Jenny Flores
Posted by Jenny Flores
Corporate Social Responsibility
Matt Petersen, LACI CEO holding the award, with Pierre Ramadier and Jenny Flores on either side.

One of the defining tenets of LACI’s mission is to create an inclusive green economy through fostering diversity and inclusion.

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Investment Insights: Trump’s trade truce timing

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Small stream of identical, new white cars driving off a large blue cargo ship at port.

While details of any deal have yet to be released, the trade war may be deescalating.

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Changing Our World: Jodi Satkunam

Posted by Newsroom
Corporate News
Head shot of smiling Jodi Satkunam

Beyond attending board meetings, you’ll find me having coffee with people who want advice on starting a business, collecting clothing donations, and attending jail meetings.

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Will 2018 be another record-breaking year for giving?

Julie Davitz
Posted by Julie Davitz
Strategic Philanthropy
Young woman reviewing her giving activities with an open laptop and calculator in front of her.

With the giving season upon us, many people are making year-end donations and evaluating their portfolios.

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