U.S. Outlook: Setting up for a better second half

Chief Economist

Sometimes teams that play a lackluster first half go into the locker room at half-time and emerge so energized they play like a completely different team.

Graph showing consistent rise in median CPI since 2008.As the U.S. economy nears the end of the first half, what does the second half of the year hold for team USA?

For more details about what’s going on, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 27.

Key observations:

  • We expect a modestly stronger advance in the rate of overall U.S. economic growth over the first half of the year at about 2.3%.
  • Continued growth in government spending and homebuilding will add modestly to the U.S. growth in the last six months of the year.
  • Brace for higher inflation.
  • Our baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the second time in July and perhaps another rate hike in December, as inflation picks up and labor markets improve further.

Click here to read my full report.

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