U.S. Outlook: Inflation’s return

Chief Economist

While it’s still early, the signs of emerging inflation are beginning to surface once again in the U.S. economy.

Graph showing rise and fall in consumer inflation over past 15 yearsFor many young folks, inflation may be a foreign concept. Even before the Great Recession took down global demand with stock and home prices, technology and globalization were eating away at inflation’s foundations.

For a look at more of the key developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 30.

Key observations:

  • Core consumer inflation has been on a slow, steady rise since July 2015, and it’s now in spitting distance of the Fed’s inflation target of 2.0%.
  • One possible factor in the return of inflation: Job openings are the highest on record.
  • A broad measure of global commodity prices is up 17% since January.
  • Consumers’ inflation expectations have risen over the last two months.

Click here to read my full report.

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