Retail sales gains have been impressive over the last three months. Sales jumped in September in the aftermath of the hurricanes, but sales have largely continued surging into October and November. The November retail sales report, released earlier this week, easily beat consensus expectations and October sales were revised higher.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 15.
- We have bumped up our forecast for real consumer spending in the fourth quarter to 3.1% annualized, which pushes up our real GDP estimate for Q4 to a solid 2.8% annualized.
- The three month annualized growth rate for retail and food service sales is at a sizzling 11.7% through November.
- Building material sales are holding more than 10% above year ago levels through November.
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With the bond market viewed as an indicator of future economic health, some warning bells are starting to ring.Read More ›
The December FOMC decision to raise the Fed funds target rate another quarter percentage point reveals a chink developing in the armor of a unified FOMC.Read More ›
Amid much anticipation, we expect the FOMC to vote next Wednesday to raise the Fed funds target rate range another quarter percentage point to between 1.25% and 1.50%.Read More ›
Overall, a solid payroll report very much in line with our expectations.Read More ›