U.S. Outlook: Is tighter monetary policy already beginning to bite?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The September FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed an upbeat assessment of current U.S. economic conditions and the outlook.

Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.At the same time, the Fed dismissed the downside risks to the U.S. economy from Hurricane Florence, the China-U.S. trade war, and foreign economic developments as having only a small net effect on U.S. real GDP growth.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 19.

Key observations:
  • It will still be quite some time before we see the impacts that the Fed tightening to date has had on our economic and financial conditions.
  • The September FOMC minutes commented in several places about rising equity prices and loose financial conditions in the marketplace as a vulnerability and risk to financial stability.
  • Interest-rate-sensitive sectors of our economy from housing to auto sales are already slowing in part due to higher interest rates.
  • From my chair, the FOMC dot plot median feels like an economist’s fairy tale.

Read my full report.

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7 tips on making your home greener

Victor Polich
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Side view of contemporary wood-sided home with solar panel awning.

Going green is getting more affordable, giving homeowners the opportunity to make changes in their homes that can make a positive impact on the environment.

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Investment Insights: Living up to (earnings) expectations

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
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Male worker in a large China textile shop, writing on a pad while surrounded by hundreds of brightly colored bolts of fabric.

After a week-long volatility binge, financial markets seem to be enjoying renewed vigor on the back of the third-quarter earnings season and some positive economic data.

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Andreas Bubenzer-Paim
Technology Banking
Small office with workers talking, foreground focus on an open laptop displaying financial tables.

At the end of the day, poorly managed working capital metrics may put a drag on the company’s earnings.

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U.S. Outlook: What’s causing long-term U.S. bond yields to rise?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.

Fluctuations in long-term Treasury bond yields are largely influenced by future growth and inflationary expectations and to some extent by the current level and expected changes in short-term interest rates that are controlled by the Federal Reserve.

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