U.S. Outlook: Where there is smoke, is there fire?

Chief Economist

There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act.

Busy street view of US Capitol from a few blocks away.Risks that the new administration and Congress could get side-tracked from their tax cut, infrastructure, and deregulation agenda are on the rise.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 24.

Key observations:

  • Our working assumption is that Congress won’t get around to infrastructure or deregulation until 2018.
  • In President Trump’s “skinny” budget for FY2018, 15 of 20 major federal agencies would see budget cuts, three would see increases, and two would be unchanged.
  • This skinny budget is in line with our previous assumptions and won’t have an impact on our near-term economic forecast.
  • We have scaled back modestly our 2017 forecasts for oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and long-term interest rates.

Click here to read my full report.

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