There is little doubt that hurricanes Harvey and Irma will have a negative impact on Q3 GDP growth when it is released next Friday.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 20.
- Lost personal income and spending should be highly visible in the real consumer spending measure, where we expect Q3 growth to slow to a 2.2% pace from 3.3% in the second quarter.
- The drop in housing starts for September suggests more than a 7.0% drop in residential investment in the third quarter, shaving at least 0.3 percentage points off of GDP growth alone.
- The real takeaway from the report will be how resilient overall U.S. GDP growth continues to be.
- We estimate Q3 GDP growth at around 2.5% on an annualized basis, just a notch lower than the 3.1% pace recorded in the second quarter.
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