U.S. Outlook: Veering away from the brink

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The impact of the government shutdown dominates this week’s U.S. Outlook Report. What could it mean for the markets and your finances?

Below is a brief summary followed by a link to the full report, delivered on Oct. 18, 2013.

Key observations:
  • We estimate that the government shutdown has cut a little over 0.2 percentage points off GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
  • Preliminary economic indications suggest a negative economic impact on consumer, business, and government spending.
  • The temporary nature of the spending and debt-ceiling solution will only extend the period of fiscal uncertainty clouding the economic recovery.
  • The silver-lining: Creation of a bicameral budget conference committee to work on a longer-term budget solution by Dec. 13.
  • Fed tapering appears unlikely in near term. This means somewhat lower rates next year for mortgages and consumer loans.

For my complete analysis, check out this week’s US Outlook Report.

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