U.S. Outlook: Veering away from the brink
The impact of the government shutdown dominates this week’s U.S. Outlook Report. What could it mean for the markets and your finances?
Below is a brief summary followed by a link to the full report, delivered on Oct. 18, 2013.Key observations:
- We estimate that the government shutdown has cut a little over 0.2 percentage points off GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
- Preliminary economic indications suggest a negative economic impact on consumer, business, and government spending.
- The temporary nature of the spending and debt-ceiling solution will only extend the period of fiscal uncertainty clouding the economic recovery.
- The silver-lining: Creation of a bicameral budget conference committee to work on a longer-term budget solution by Dec. 13.
- Fed tapering appears unlikely in near term. This means somewhat lower rates next year for mortgages and consumer loans.
For my complete analysis, check out this week’s US Outlook Report.