U.S. Outlook: It’s all about the labor market

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I expect the markets will be looking for signs at the upcoming FOMC meeting that the Fed may move up its timetable for the first interest rate hike.

Graph showing last several months of initial jobless claims.But there are many reasons I remain skeptical the September FOMC statement will change much, if at all.

For more on this and other economic developments to watch, see highlights of my weekly economic analysis below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Sept. 12.

Key observations:
  • Caution is the word on the U.S. labor market heading into FOMC meeting.
  • It’s important to remember Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains the most important member of the FOMC. (Not all votes are created equally).
  • Initial jobless claims reverse course over the past month and are beginning to rise.
  • Yellen’s labor market dashboard reveals a mixed picture of labor market progress.
Click here to read my full report.

 

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