U.S. Outlook: Keeping the faith on the U.S. economy

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Despite the slight dip in real GDP in the fourth quarter (2.2%), the U.S. economy continues to perform in-line with our forecasts.

Graph showing recent consumer inflation trends, with consumer prices holding steady.Headwinds from lower oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and weak global demand are making an impact.

For a detailed look at this and other developments, see my full weekly analysis. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Feb. 27.

Key observations:
  • We don’t see anything outside the box that would change our fundamental view of the U.S. economic or interest-rate outlook for this year.
  • Data points from the Eurozone are looking better.
  • U.S. non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft broke a four-month losing streak in
    January.
  • June is still on the table for the first rate increase, should U.S. inflation and unemployment
    rate data cooperate.

Click here to read my full report.

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