U.S. Outlook: A festive holiday forecast this year

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

As we all digest plenty of new economic data over the next two weeks, I believe we’ll see much to suggest consumers will spend more this holiday season.

Bar chart showing annual holiday sales growth for the past six years.In addition, I will take Black Friday off next week to do my part to support the U.S. economy.

For my complete holiday economic forecast, see my full report. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Nov. 20.

Key observations:
  • E-commerce sales have been growing at a 15% annualized growth rate or better of the past six years.
  • Our forecast for holiday sales growth this year is 4.0%, which would make it the best year since 2012.
  • I see nothing on the near-term economic horizon to keep the Fed on hold past December for an initial rate hike.

NOTE: There will be no U.S. Outlook report next Friday, Nov. 27.

 

Click here to read my full report.

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