U.S. Outlook: A rock solid U.S. employment report for June

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

A hot June employment report belies weak U.S. job growth in April and May, and it’s an important support for the second-quarter recovery in consumer spending and GDP growth we are forecasting.

Chart showing the growth in June jobs by sector.The dismal May jobs report appears to be a one-month aberration, as we suspected, rather than the start of a pronounced economic downturn.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 8.

Key observations:
  • It will likely take more than one month of better job gains to convince the FOMC that another interest rate hike is warranted.
  • It is important to note that this employment report reflects U.S. economic reality before the U.K. vote.
  • My view is that a December 2016 rate hike is still on the table and actually quite possible.
  • Just a few more employment reports like June’s, and genuine optimism could break out.

Click here to read my full report.

More:

See Scott’s latest column in Forbes: “Hey Janet — Keep and Eye on Manufacturing”

 

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