U.S. Outlook: An early spring for the jobs report

Posted By Scott Anderson In Economic Outlook | No Comments

Spring in February: Is it global warming, stock market gains, Donald Trump, or a rekindling of animal spirits that helped push up the job growth numbers last month?

Graph showing recent rise in the labor force participation rate. [1]The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 10.

Key observations:

  • The increased momentum could have something to do with unusually mild winter weather playing havoc on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonal adjustment factors.
  • Average hourly earnings growth has been accelerating as the economy rapidly absorbs remaining slack in the labor market.
  • A March Fed rate hike is a near-certainty now with this strong payroll report under our belt.
  • The report also raises the possibility of another rate hike as soon as the June meeting, though our baseline forecast is still for a September move.

 

Click here to read my full report. [2]


Article printed from Bank of the West: https://blog.bankofthewest.com

URL to article: https://blog.bankofthewest.com/2017/03/10/u-s-outlook-early-spring-jobs-report/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: https://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/graph_laborforce_particip_031017.jpg

[2] Click here to read my full report.: https://blog.bankofthewest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BankoftheWest_USOutlook_3_10_17.pdf

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