U.S. Outlook: Job growth slips in March

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Despite plunging initial jobless claims and a robust ADP employment report for March, the nonfarm payroll report gave us a little head fake this morning.

Graph showing parallel declines in unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate.While the headline number was a disappointment, the details in the report revealed underlying labor market strength and momentum.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 7.

Key observations:

  • Special factors like Winter Storm Stella likely held back payroll gains in a number of major job categories.
  • The three-month moving average payroll gain of 178K jobs a month is probably a better reflection of the underlying pace of job creation in the U.S. economy today.
  • The U6 measure of unemployment, which includes marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell below 9% for the first time in this expansion.
  • We are pushing forward our forecast for the next rate hike from the Fed to June from September.

Click here to read my full report.

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