U.S. Outlook: ‘You’re hired’ — July jobs report sizzles

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported another all-around solid jobs report for July. The U.S. economy created 209K net new jobs last month, easily beating consensus expectations for 180K jobs.

Graph showing job growth by sector in July.We have now had two consecutive months of 200+ jobs, so I guess you could say the economy is batting a thousand when it comes to the labor market.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Aug. 4.

Key observations:

  • Job gains in July were led by private service providers.
  • The jobs report is strong enough to keep the Fed on course for a September balance sheet reductions announcement, and it will keep a December rate hike from the Fed on the table.
  • Some FOMC members could begin to worry that the labor market is running a little too hot right now.
  • It’s premature to conclude the U.S. economy is breaking out of its 2% trend growth rut, though we do think GDP growth in Q3 will come in closer to 2.6% than 2.0%.

Click here to read my full report.

 

 

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  • Anonymous says:

    Great article. With the US Labor Force Participation Rate is at 62.90%. Wouldn’t that make the non-participation rate around 37.1%? What percentage of these non participants do you feel are retirees? What do you feel the effects of this high of a non-participation rate for this long will be?

    Reply | 2 months ago

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