U.S. Outlook: Light at the end of the tunnel
The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity in the fourth quarter.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 6.Key observations:
- The U.S. dollar has weakened about 10% so far this year, making U.S. manufacturing exports more price-competitive in global markets.
- The ISM manufacturing index hit its highest level since January 2004 in September.
- The stutter-step we are seeing in the labor market is just a temporary setback that the market and Federal Reserve will largely look past.
- Don’t be surprised if the hawkish talk from Fed governors continues, and the FOMC goes ahead with another rate hike in December.