U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month.This was well above consensus expectations of 180K jobs. The payroll report also contained a big surprise on hourly earnings data.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 2.

Key observations:

  • A large upward revision in average hourly earnings punches a hole in the narrative that wage growth remains lackluster.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in January, but that appeared to have more to do with a big jump in the labor force estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Monthly payroll numbers like these not only show the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders today, it could be running a bit too hot.
  • The bond market is finally changing its tune on the inflation outlook.

 

Read my full report.

 

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