U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?
Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 2.Key observations:
- A large upward revision in average hourly earnings punches a hole in the narrative that wage growth remains lackluster.
- The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in January, but that appeared to have more to do with a big jump in the labor force estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Monthly payroll numbers like these not only show the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders today, it could be running a bit too hot.
- The bond market is finally changing its tune on the inflation outlook.