U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

outside shoppers in San FranciscoHow does this expansion stack up against the longest on record, and how long will it last?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 8.

Key observations:
  • The current expansion, at 108 month long and running, is the second longest in history going back to 1854, trailing only the 1991-2001 expansion.
  • Sharp downturns in GDP are sometimes followed by strong and rapid recoveries, but debt-driven recessions, like the Great Recession, can take longer to fully recover from.
  • Income growth during the current expansion has remained tepid compared to past expansions.
  • In our view, this expansion is likely to last for at least six more quarters, partly due to the tax cuts that were enacted late last year.

 

Read my full report.

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