U.S. Outlook: Job growth cools in July
Nonfarm payroll growth slipped to 157K in July, the slowest pace of monthly job gains since March.
Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 3.Key observations:
- If job gains continue near the current pace, the U.S. unemployment rate will continue to move lower over the coming months.
- We are forecasting the U.S. unemployment rate will average 3.6% by the fourth quarter of next year.
- There is no sign in the July jobs data that the trade war is negatively impacting the U.S. job growth engine.
- Despite falling short of consensus estimates on headline job creation last month, this is in way a weak labor market or even a weakening labor market.