U.S. Outlook: Don’t let the headline fool you; job engine is intact

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Hurricane Florence muddied the waters of the September payroll report.

Business people on a break in a glass covered space.However, the U.S. labor market managed to reveal its underlying strength and resilience despite the miss on the headline jobs number.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 5.

Key observations:
  • The U.S. economy has added over 200K jobs per month over first three quarters of 2018.
  • The last time the U.S. economy managed that feat was way back in 2105, when the unemployment rate was much higher than it is today (over 5%).
  • The year-on-year wage growth rate failed to accelerate, slipping back to 2.8% from 2.9% in August.
  • The report increases the odds the Fed will raise the fed funds rate two more times next year.

Read my full report.

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