U.S. Outlook: Thanksgiving comes early this year

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Rather than a scary October payroll report appropriate for the Halloween season, investors and analysts received an early Thanksgiving surprise.

closeup on palate of food delivered by grocery employee.Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 250K in October, up from 118K in September, and well above the consensus forecast of 200K jobs.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 2.

Key observations:
  • Clearly, there was a strong bounce back from Hurrican Florence baked into October’s job gains.
  • Bad weather prevented 198K people from working last month.
  • The U.S. job growth engine shows no sign of slowing down as yet. This raises the odds of another rate hike from the Fed in December.
  • Low unemployment rates finally appear to be lifting average hourly earnings growth. For the first time in this expansion, the average hourly earnings growth moved above 3.0%.

Read my full report.

Reminder: All comments are moderated prior to publication and must follow our Community Guidelines.

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Blog. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Blog.