U.S. Outlook: Market fears of near-term recession overblown

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

As recently as September when U.S. stocks were hitting new record highs, economic optimism was rampant and, in retrospect, probably overdone.

Busy work environment with stock traders concentrating on their computers.In my view, the markets are once again overreacting.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 14.

Key observations:
  • Yes, the global economy is in what appears to be a synchronized slowdown.
  • Tighter monetary policy and financial conditions, fading fiscal stimulus, and slowing global growth will all conspire to slow down the economic freight train that has been the U.S. economy this year.
  • We forecast another quarter-point rate hike from the FOMC next week, bringing the fed funds target rate to a 2.25% to 2.50% range.
  • A recession may come by sometime in 2020, but this episode of market volatility isn’t it.

Read my full report.

Reminder: All comments are moderated prior to publication and must follow our Community Guidelines.

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Blog. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Blog.