There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act.
For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 24.
- Our working assumption is that Congress won’t get around to infrastructure or deregulation until 2018.
- In President Trump’s “skinny” budget for FY2018, 15 of 20 major federal agencies would see budget cuts, three would see increases, and two would be unchanged.
- This skinny budget is in line with our previous assumptions and won’t have an impact on our near-term economic forecast.
- We have scaled back modestly our 2017 forecasts for oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and long-term interest rates.
“Hurry up and wait” pretty well describes the state of monetary policy today as the Fed goes further down the path of interest-rate normalization.Read More ›
Today’s decision to raise the fed funds rate does not signal that the FOMC is off to the races on aggressive interest rate hikes over the next three years.Read More ›
The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.Read More ›
The chorus of calls from Fed officials that a rate hike is coming soon got a lot louder this week.Read More ›