All Posts Tagged: economy

U.S. Outlook: Where there is smoke, is there fire?

Chief Economist

There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act.

Busy street view of US Capitol from a few blocks away.Risks that the new administration and Congress could get side-tracked from their tax cut, infrastructure, and deregulation agenda are on the rise.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 24.

Key observations:

  • Our working assumption is that Congress won’t get around to infrastructure or deregulation until 2018.
  • In President Trump’s “skinny” budget for FY2018, 15 of 20 major federal agencies would see budget cuts, three would see increases, and two would be unchanged.
  • This skinny budget is in line with our previous assumptions and won’t have an impact on our near-term economic forecast.
  • We have scaled back modestly our 2017 forecasts for oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and long-term interest rates.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Interest rate normalization is ‘hurry up and wait’

Chief Economist

“Hurry up and wait” pretty well describes the state of monetary policy today as the Fed goes further down the path of interest-rate normalization.

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Instant Analysis: Fed raises rates at March meeting

Chief Economist

Today’s decision to raise the fed funds rate does not signal that the FOMC is off to the races on aggressive interest rate hikes over the next three years.

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U.S. Outlook: An early spring for the jobs report

Chief Economist

The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.

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Business growth signs remain in view during 2017

Private Business Owner Solutions

Most signs point to U.S. business owners having a good year — though there may be some hiccups along the way.

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