All Posts Tagged: employment

U.S. Outlook: Interest rate normalization is ‘hurry up and wait’

Chief Economist

“Hurry up and wait” pretty well describes the state of monetary policy today as the Fed goes further down the path of interest-rate normalization.

Graph showing recent downward trend in consumer spending.With the March rate hike decision, the FOMC, in my opinion, took the opportunity to fire a shot across the bow against rapidly tightening labor markets, rising consumer inflation, and stock market gains that some analysts find excessive given the current economic environment.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 17.

Key observations:

  • Some analysts are starting to toy with the idea of a more aggressive Fed delivering four rate hikes this year, but we are sticking with our forecast of three.
  • Despite all the action in the labor market, prices, and sentiment measures, GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to be underwhelming.
  • Consumer spending appears to be slowing significantly in the first quarter.
  • If GDP growth and inflation re-accelerate over the summer as we expect, the Fed can comfortably move again in September.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. jobs engine remains intact

Chief Economist

Details of the December payroll report reveal a solid U.S. labor market with plenty of fuel left in the tank.

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The “what ifs”: 3 things to plan for when arriving in the United States

International Banking

While it’s not always pleasant to ask these “what if” scenarios, the preparation you may gain from considering them may help boost your peace of mind in the long run.

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U.S. Outlook: The global economy holds in there

Chief Economist

The economic indicators out of the Eurozone and emerging markets have come in somewhat better than expected.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for July

Chief Economist

A better-than-expected employment report for July caps a two-month period of robust U.S. job gains.

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