All Posts Tagged: GDP

U.S. Outlook: Where there is smoke, is there fire?

Chief Economist

There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act.

Busy street view of US Capitol from a few blocks away.Risks that the new administration and Congress could get side-tracked from their tax cut, infrastructure, and deregulation agenda are on the rise.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 24.

Key observations:

  • Our working assumption is that Congress won’t get around to infrastructure or deregulation until 2018.
  • In President Trump’s “skinny” budget for FY2018, 15 of 20 major federal agencies would see budget cuts, three would see increases, and two would be unchanged.
  • This skinny budget is in line with our previous assumptions and won’t have an impact on our near-term economic forecast.
  • We have scaled back modestly our 2017 forecasts for oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and long-term interest rates.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Interest rate normalization is ‘hurry up and wait’

Chief Economist

“Hurry up and wait” pretty well describes the state of monetary policy today as the Fed goes further down the path of interest-rate normalization.

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Business growth signs remain in view during 2017

Private Business Owner Solutions

Most signs point to U.S. business owners having a good year — though there may be some hiccups along the way.

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U.S. Outlook: Feeling good — is it the stock market or the economy?

Chief Economist

Investors have gotten extremely comfortable with the economic environment and outlook — some would say the mood is positively complacent.

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Investment Insights: A neck-and-neck race at a snail’s pace

Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Despite improving earnings numbers being supportive to U.S. equities, the “Trump trade” seems to be stalling.

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