All Posts Tagged: jobs report

U.S. Outlook: An early spring for the jobs report

Chief Economist

Spring in February: Is it global warming, stock market gains, Donald Trump, or a rekindling of animal spirits that helped push up the job growth numbers last month?

Graph showing recent rise in the labor force participation rate.The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 10.

Key observations:

  • The increased momentum could have something to do with unusually mild winter weather playing havoc on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonal adjustment factors.
  • Average hourly earnings growth has been accelerating as the economy rapidly absorbs remaining slack in the labor market.
  • A March Fed rate hike is a near-certainty now with this strong payroll report under our belt.
  • The report also raises the possibility of another rate hike as soon as the June meeting, though our baseline forecast is still for a September move.

 

Click here to read my full report.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: Employment report for November

Chief Economist

The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: The labor market through a different prism

Chief Economist

What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: Employment report for December

Chief Economist

The U.S. labor market ended the year on a solid note, staunching this week’s equity market panic.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Economy is looking better in October

Chief Economist

Following the slowdown of August and September, the economic data points so far for October suggest the U.S. is picking up some growth momentum.

Read More ›