All Posts Tagged: labor market

U.S. Outlook: An early spring for the jobs report

Chief Economist

Spring in February: Is it global warming, stock market gains, Donald Trump, or a rekindling of animal spirits that helped push up the job growth numbers last month?

Graph showing recent rise in the labor force participation rate.The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 10.

Key observations:

  • The increased momentum could have something to do with unusually mild winter weather playing havoc on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonal adjustment factors.
  • Average hourly earnings growth has been accelerating as the economy rapidly absorbs remaining slack in the labor market.
  • A March Fed rate hike is a near-certainty now with this strong payroll report under our belt.
  • The report also raises the possibility of another rate hike as soon as the June meeting, though our baseline forecast is still for a September move.

 

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Two steps forward, one step back

Chief Economist

The chorus of calls from Fed officials that a rate hike is coming soon got a lot louder this week.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for November

Chief Economist

The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for October

Chief Economist

Growing signs of a tightening U.S. labor market were clearly visible in this month’s report, from dropping unemployment rates to rising wages.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for July

Chief Economist

The statement points out that the labor market has strengthened since the last FOMC meeting, and that household spending has been growing strongly.

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