All Posts Tagged: oil prices

U.S. Outlook: Interest rate normalization is ‘hurry up and wait’

Chief Economist

“Hurry up and wait” pretty well describes the state of monetary policy today as the Fed goes further down the path of interest-rate normalization.

Graph showing recent downward trend in consumer spending.With the March rate hike decision, the FOMC, in my opinion, took the opportunity to fire a shot across the bow against rapidly tightening labor markets, rising consumer inflation, and stock market gains that some analysts find excessive given the current economic environment.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 17.

Key observations:

  • Some analysts are starting to toy with the idea of a more aggressive Fed delivering four rate hikes this year, but we are sticking with our forecast of three.
  • Despite all the action in the labor market, prices, and sentiment measures, GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to be underwhelming.
  • Consumer spending appears to be slowing significantly in the first quarter.
  • If GDP growth and inflation re-accelerate over the summer as we expect, the Fed can comfortably move again in September.

Click here to read my full report.

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Business growth signs remain in view during 2017

Private Business Owner Solutions

Most signs point to U.S. business owners having a good year — though there may be some hiccups along the way.

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Investment Insights: Starting off on the right foot

Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

The financial markets seem to be starting off the year on a positive note as investor optimism buoys markets.

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U.S. Outlook: Global economy gets its groove back

Chief Economist

We are seeing increasing signs of a synchronized rebound in the global economy, particularly in developed markets.

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Investment Insights: Trumping monetary policy

Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

While we are anticipating more activity and trading volume in 2017, the remainder of 2016 still may hold a few surprises.

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