There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act.
For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 24.
- Our working assumption is that Congress won’t get around to infrastructure or deregulation until 2018.
- In President Trump’s “skinny” budget for FY2018, 15 of 20 major federal agencies would see budget cuts, three would see increases, and two would be unchanged.
- This skinny budget is in line with our previous assumptions and won’t have an impact on our near-term economic forecast.
- We have scaled back modestly our 2017 forecasts for oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and long-term interest rates.
Markets seem to be reassessing near-term risks as oil slumps and the U.S. dollar continues a precipitous decline that started just over a week ago.Read More ›
The effects of higher rates are far-reaching, but our foremost concerns revolve around an even higher U.S. dollar, corporate earnings, and debt yields.Read More ›
The animal spirits that lifted the market to each new high may have hit their limits, as the S&P 500 Index has failed to advance the past few trading sessions and consumer confidence may be starting to lose momentum.Read More ›
The chorus of calls from Fed officials that a rate hike is coming soon got a lot louder this week.Read More ›