U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Daily economic indicators continue to show the second-quarter U.S. economic rebound remains on track. However, beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.

Graph showing rise of President Trump's disapproval rating.The political drama in Washington, D.C.,intensified this week and has potentially damaged and/or delayed the Trump administration’s business-friendly economic policy agenda.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 19.

Key observations:

  • President Trump’s ratings are once again revisiting their lowest levels since he took office.
  • Republican lawmakers may be more willing to distance themselves from elements of the president’s tax reform and budget plan — for example, whether to make the tax cuts revenue-neutral or not.
  • Measures of stock market volatility and credit risk show a level of complacency that seems oddly out of place with the dire political headlines of the day.
  • This week’s events call our GDP 2018 forecast into question and tip the balance of risks more toward the downside than the upside in my view.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

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U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

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Instant Analysis: The FOMC decision for May

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close up of the Federal Reserve building with the eagle statue

We see nothing in the statement today that would dissuade the FOMC from raising the fed funds rate again in June.

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U.S. Outlook: Why the Fed will look past weak Q1 GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in business spending growth

U.S. GDP growth sputtered in the first quarter. This was the worst performance from the U.S. economy since the first quarter of 2014.

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