U.S. economic indicators have been throwing off mixed messages.
In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 14.
- It may be too late to expect much of any bounce in the hard data indexes from the burst of confidence since November.
- Confidence measures could correct lower in the months ahead rather than for the U.S. economy to see a strong acceleration in growth.
- Our GDP growth estimate for Q1 slipped below 1.0% annualized this week.
- We are currently forecasting a below-consensus rebound in GDP growth in Q2 of 2.4%.
While the headline number was a disappointment, the details in the report revealed underlying labor market strength and momentum.Read More ›
Alan Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the disconnect between stock market gains and economic fundamentals in the late 1990s. Is it time to use the phrase again? For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 31. Key observations: […]Read More ›
There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act. Risks that the new administration and Congress could get side-tracked from their tax cut, infrastructure, and deregulation agenda are on the rise. For more on […]Read More ›
“Hurry up and wait” pretty well describes the state of monetary policy today as the Fed goes further down the path of interest-rate normalization. With the March rate hike decision, the FOMC, in my opinion, took the opportunity to fire a shot across the bow against rapidly tightening labor markets, rising consumer inflation, and stock […]Read More ›