All Posts Tagged: April

U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Net new job creation is cooling off. Nonfarm payroll growth at 164K in April came in a bit short of analysts’ expectations for the second month in a row.

Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.Should we be worried about this deceleration in job growth?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 4.

Key observations:
  • Economists, including at the Fed, have noted that monthly job growth above 200K jobs per month was unsustainable, given our sluggish labor force growth.
  • The unemployment rate of 3.9% in April is the lowest unemployment rate in this country since December 2000.
  • Why we aren’t seeing serious wage and inflation pressures from such a low unemployment rate is a puzzle that’s likely to consume the Fed staff in the weeks ahead.
  • The cool-down in average monthly job growth makes me more comfortable with my forecast for just three interest rate hikes this year.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

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U.S. Outlook: Is manufacturing resurgence a reality or a dream?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing manufacturing as percent of GDP over last several years.

Manufacturing PMIs so far for May point to a renewed slowing in manufacturing activity.

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Instant Analysis: The employment report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Image of a crosswalk with shadows of people entering it to cross the street.

We saw a solid bounce-back in U.S. job creation in April to 223K which fits nicely with the transitory Q1 slowdown thesis.

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