All Posts Tagged: April

U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.Nonfarm payroll growth came roaring back with a net 211K jobs created, well above consensus expectations for a 190K jobs gain. The unemployment rate of 4.4% is the lowest since May 2007.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 5.

Key observations:

  • The payroll gain was strong enough, in our opinion, to lay to rest any doubts in the sustainability of the expansion that erupted after the weak March jobs report and lackluster Q1 GDP reading.
  • The jobs report keeps the Fed firmly on its rate hike path of two more rate increases by September.
  • The sharp decline in the U.S. unemployment rate so far this year will raise concerns from some that the Fed is a bit behind the curve in normalizing short-term interest rates.
  • The probability of overshooting full employment has increased, and the Fed will be taking notice.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Is manufacturing resurgence a reality or a dream?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing manufacturing as percent of GDP over last several years.

Manufacturing PMIs so far for May point to a renewed slowing in manufacturing activity.

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Instant Analysis: The employment report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Image of a crosswalk with shadows of people entering it to cross the street.

We saw a solid bounce-back in U.S. job creation in April to 223K which fits nicely with the transitory Q1 slowdown thesis.

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