All Posts Tagged: BLS
Here we are at day 35 of the federal government shutdown and economic releases are getting scarce. But next week should be an interesting one. We get January employment data from both ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
We are expecting some deceleration in job growth from December’s blistering 312K pace, but our forecasts remain somewhat above the consensus expectations.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 25.Key observations:
- The drop in initial jobless claims in January to a new 49- year low is both unexpected during a month’s long federal government shutdown and a testament to the residual strength of the U.S. expansion.
- We are forecasting a nonfarm payroll gain of 175K jobs in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and healthy monthly average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%.
- Job growth could remain strong enough in the first half of 2019 to justify another rate hike by June.
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It is widely known that the U.S. economy is creating new jobs at a rapid pace. Since the expansion started, the economy has added nearly 20 million jobs.Read More ›
The August employment report looks pretty sweet on the surface.Read More ›
Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.Read More ›