All Posts Tagged: bond market

U.S. Outlook: What’s behind the oil price plunge?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Crude oil prices had been generally rising in 2018 before peaking at $76.24 on October 3.

Large, very clean refinery at dawn. No human activity is visible.Since then, there has been a sudden shift in underlying market dynamics. What’s behind the sharp change in trend?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 30.

Key observations:
  • Overall, we believe the increase in oil supply rather than a decrease in oil demand is the primary driver of lower oil prices today.
  • The sudden, sharp, and sustained decline in oil prices immediately reduced the inflation expectations of bond investors.
  • Investors are now expecting lower consumer inflation over the next five years compared to early October, largely as a result of the dramatic plunge in oil and other commodities prices.
  • Bank of the West Economics expects West Texas Intermediate Crude to average $62.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and average just $51.50 per barrel in 2019.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: ‘Just below’

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Diagonal upward view of Federal Reserve building

Jerome Powell’s lunch presentation and speech Wednesday held those two small but significant words, “just below.”

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Investment Insights: A nightmare on Wall Street

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Male stock brokers conferring about one of many blue screens in the photo showing stock performance data.

The U.S. stock market had one of its most challenging months in more than a decade.

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Investment Insights: The longest U.S. bull market? Sort of.

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Closeup of stock market screen with all green arrows pointing up next to specific percentages.

The current bull market isn’t over yet.

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Investment Insights: Investors go cold Turkey

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Portside at Istanbul, with ships near the coast and large, historic mosue visible in the distance.

The Turkish lira is one of the worst-performing currencies over the last two years, declining over 40% during the period, according to Bloomberg data.

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