All Posts Tagged: bond market

U.S. Outlook: Have U.S. and global growth already peaked?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.

Graph showing economic surprise index in declineThat is not to say Q2 growth won’t accelerate from moribund Q1 rates.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 13.

Key observations:

  • Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index continues to deteriorate and turned net negative for the first time since last June.
  • The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, where industrial production has declined for three consecutive months for the first time since 2012.
  • If U.S. and global growth was about to gallop higher in the months ahead, why haven’t commodity futures prices budged?
  • The 2 year/10 year Treasury bond yield spread shrank to an expansion-low 47 basis points this week.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Tillerson takes a walk

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
3 oil rigs on a snowy, barren field as the sun tries to show itself in a gray sky.

Earnings results and a fairly tame inflation release in the U.S. may be helping to buoy prices against declines from geopolitical news.

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U.S. Outlook: Is the economy accelerating or slowing down?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing different leading indicators for economic performance.

It’s not only the stock market that’s throwing off more mixed signals and increased volatility these days.

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Investment Insights: Back in the saddle again

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Two construction workers in hardhats looking up at a partially finished highway bridge.

Now that the dust has settled from the correction, we are more positive in our stance on stocks over the near-term.

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Investment Insights: Take a deep breath

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Two concerned stock traders - man and a woman - staring at a monitor.

The decline has already erased the entirety of 2018 gains for the S&P 500, after investors enjoyed a return of 7.55% in the first 26 days of the year.

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