All Posts Tagged: bonds

U.S. Outlook: Fed gambles on inflation’s return

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Mixed messages continue to be thrown off by the U.S. economy, and this week we can add retail sales and consumer inflation for May to the list of economic indicators that continue to disappoint analysts’ expectations.

Chart showing sales growth/loss by category, compared to a year ago.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 16.

Key observations:

  • The three-month moving average on retail sales is running at about half the pace seen over the past 12 months.
  • Inflation is showing signs of moderation after a sharp rebound in the first quarter.
  • The combination of a somewhat less dovish Fed and diminishing growth and inflation expectations is compressing the Treasury yield to an extent that rivals the lows of the expansion.
  • Bank credit has already tightened for CRE and auto lending, while loan demand has weakened pretty much across all segments.

Click here to read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our May report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Busy & blurry street sign, with a focus near side of the frame on a display of international currency exchange rates.

Both stock and bond markets pushed stubbornly higher in May even as adverse political news in the U.S. and the U.K. dominated headlines.

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Investment Insights: Is the U.K. the next Singapore?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Traffic scene on London street at sunset, with Big Ben a short distance away.

While it hasn’t seen the same tabloid excitement as the Brexit, the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement has been in the works for over a decade.

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Investment Insights: China’s new Silk Road and a European Union makeover

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
View from harbor of Shanghai

The trade relationship between the U.S. and its largest trading partner is being reshaped.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our April report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Global stock markets churned during the month of April alongside the ebb and flow of geopolitical risks around the world.

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