All Posts Tagged: bonds

U.S. Outlook: Dissecting the dots

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Every newspaper article on the Fed decision this week cited the downward migration of the median dot-plot from three hikes next year to just two hikes.

View of a eagle statue on Federal Reserve building in DCBut just looking at the median forecast gives one a false sense of precision about the future of U.S. interest rates.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 21.

Key observations:
  • The FOMC members neatly divide into three distinct camps when it comes to interest rate expectations for 2019.
  • The market appears to have come to a far different conclusion than the FOMC about the proper stance of monetary policy and interest rates.
  • It is important to note that markets get things wrong sometimes; they can overreact especially during times of market panic like we seem to be going through right now. But sometimes markets see our economic future before analysts do, or even before the Fed does.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: What’s got bond markets in a huff?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Close up on Wall St. street sign, with tourists enjoying the street in summer weather behind it.

Corporate earnings continue to be supportive and a bright spot for financial markets.

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Investment Insights: A calm in Korea, but not for stocks

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Guards in traditional garb marching in South Korea.

Despite groundbreaking peace talks between North and South Korea, stocks continue to fluctuate on earnings news and the Fed’s meeting.

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Investment Insights: Investor anxiety refocuses on rates

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Trader

Geopolitical risk seems to be subsiding, at least temporarily, but it may be yet another upward pressure on rates.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q1 2018 report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Fortress wall in China with decorative 3-story structure on top.

Volatility, the word that strikes fear into the minds of nervous investors, returned in the first quarter of 2018.

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