All Posts Tagged: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month.This was well above consensus expectations of 180K jobs. The payroll report also contained a big surprise on hourly earnings data.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 2.

Key observations:

  • A large upward revision in average hourly earnings punches a hole in the narrative that wage growth remains lackluster.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in January, but that appeared to have more to do with a big jump in the labor force estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Monthly payroll numbers like these not only show the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders today, it could be running a bit too hot.
  • The bond market is finally changing its tune on the inflation outlook.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: The labor market through a different prism

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing growth and loss trends in job openings for past several years.

What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for June

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Attendees at a conference in front of large glass windows, the sun in the background.

Nothing in this report dissuades me that labor market progress continues — just not as fast as we would all like to see as the second quarter comes to a close. 

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U.S. Outlook: Fragile or not fragile? That is the question

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing upward trend in small business optimism

A mosaic of strong and sluggish economic indicators raises the question: Is the recovery fragile or not?

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Instant Analysis: U.S. employment report for July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Young professional woman smiling at a colleague

The job number for July was not as strong as one would expect given the sharp drop in initial jobless claims on the month.

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