All Posts Tagged: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

If you merely glanced at the February jobs gain (313K), you would be forgiven for concluding the U.S. labor market is on fire and the economy is in danger of overheating and burning to the ground.

Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 9.

Key observations:

  • This was the strongest monthly gain in nonfarm payrolls since July 2016.
  • Despite sizzling job growth in recent months, signs of an overheating labor market were just not there.
  • Average hourly earnings increased only 0.1% in February, and the year-on-year gain slipped to 2.6% from a downwardly revised 2.8% gain in January.
  • The February jobs report makes another Fed funds rate hike in March a near certainty, in my opinion.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month.

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

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U.S. Outlook: The labor market through a different prism

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing growth and loss trends in job openings for past several years.

What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for June

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Attendees at a conference in front of large glass windows, the sun in the background.

Nothing in this report dissuades me that labor market progress continues — just not as fast as we would all like to see as the second quarter comes to a close. 

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U.S. Outlook: Fragile or not fragile? That is the question

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing upward trend in small business optimism

A mosaic of strong and sluggish economic indicators raises the question: Is the recovery fragile or not?

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