All Posts Tagged: business inventories

U.S. Outlook: Economy runs hot in the second quarter

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Second quarter real GDP pierced the 4.0% barrier, as we expected, with the advance estimate from the BEA coming in at a sizzling 4.1%.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYCThe above-trend growth was driven by a number of factors.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 27.

Key observations:
  • Consumer spending alone was responsible for 2.7 percentage points of the 4.1% gain in U.S. real GDP growth last quarter.
  • We forecast real consumer spending growth of around 2.4% annualized in the third quarter.
  • GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.
  • Bottom line: The 4.1% Q2 GDP print was impressive, but not sustainable in the quarters ahead.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Headline GDP growth for Q4 comes in on the light side

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly GDP growth figures from 2015, with forecasts for 2018

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in the fourth quarter, following a 3.2% annualized growth rate in the third quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: Solid GDP growth in Q3; what’s in store for Q4?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing percentage increase in export of total goods

A decent GDP growth performance for the United States should keep the FOMC on track for a December rate hike.

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U.S. Outlook: After weak growth, what’s next for 2016?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing fluctuation in trade balance of goods between January 2014 and May 2016

After slow growth in the first half of the year, what’s in store for real GDP in the quarters ahead?

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U.S. Outlook: Ignore the headline – Q3 GDP report was solid

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent patterns in consumer spending (monthly)

Real GDP growth for the third quarter (1.5%) was a big deterioration from the second quarter’s 3.9% growth, but in this instance the headline was deceiving.

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