All Posts Tagged: business spending
U.S. Outlook: Why recent GDP growth doesn’t look sustainable
Chief Economist
Headline third-quarter GDP growth came in at a robust 3.5% after coming off of a sizzling 4.2% pace of growth in the second quarter.
However, the foundation that this growth is built upon is looking a little shaky.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 26.
Key observations:- Robust consumer spending and inventory building drove the strong GDP growth last quarter.
- Residential construction spending is already contracting, dropping at a 4.0% pace in the third quarter.
- Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining, rather than ramping up.
- We expect U.S. GDP growth to slow again in the fourth quarter to around a 2.4% pace, and continue to gradually slow in 2019.
U.S. Outlook: Headline GDP growth for Q4 comes in on the light side
Chief Economist
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in the fourth quarter, following a 3.2% annualized growth rate in the third quarter.
Read More ›U.S. Outlook: Positive economic surprises continue
Chief Economist
The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.
Read More ›Amid interest rate speculation, U.S. businesses see sustainable growth
Commercial Banking
The current international economic landscape is only reinforcing the relative appeal of the United States.
Read More ›U.S. Outlook: Shifting prices create new winners
Chief Economist
