All Posts Tagged: business spending

U.S. Outlook: Why recent GDP growth doesn’t look sustainable

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Headline third-quarter GDP growth came in at a robust 3.5% after coming off of a sizzling 4.2% pace of growth in the second quarter.

Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.However, the foundation that this growth is built upon is looking a little shaky.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 26.

Key observations:
  • Robust consumer spending and inventory building drove the strong GDP growth last quarter.
  • Residential construction spending is already contracting, dropping at a 4.0% pace in the third quarter.
  • Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining, rather than ramping up.
  • We expect U.S. GDP growth to slow again in the fourth quarter to around a 2.4% pace, and continue to gradually slow in 2019.
Read my full report. Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Headline GDP growth for Q4 comes in on the light side

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly GDP growth figures from 2015, with forecasts for 2018

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in the fourth quarter, following a 3.2% annualized growth rate in the third quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: Positive economic surprises continue

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.

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Amid interest rate speculation, U.S. businesses see sustainable growth

Dan Wilson
Posted by Dan Wilson
Commercial Banking
Crane silhouetted against a reddish sky, rising above an office building that is under construction.

The current international economic landscape is only reinforcing the relative appeal of the United States.

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U.S. Outlook: Shifting prices create new winners

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the rise in consumer confidence.

Right now the winners include the U.S. consumer and housing market.

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