Commercial Banking

U.S. Outlook: Reading the tea leaves from the Loan Officer Survey

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Federal Reserve released results from the April Senor Loan Officers Survey on Bank Lending Practices, which tracks changes in bank credit standards and terms and demand for bank loans from businesses and consumers of the last three months.

Middle-aged couple talking to a female banker, who's holding a pen.What stood out to us was continued broad-based weakness in loan demand from both businesses and households.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 11.

Key observations:

  • Banks reported that demand for commercial & industrial and commercial real estate loans weakened in the first quarter.
  • Banks also reported weaker demand for auto loans, credit cards, and most categories of residential real estate loans.
  • There is no evidence yet of a business investment or consumer spending surge coming from the U.S. banking industry.
  • Given the Federal Reserve’s determination to continue raising short-term interest rates into 2019, I don’t see bank lending conditions materially improving from here.


Read my full report.

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What’s your pick for most impressive tech innovation?

Andreas Bubenzer-Paim
Technology Banking
Side view of Asian businessman touching a large blue screen with AI on it and extra-dimensional beams and figures extending from it.

Unprecedented advances in computing, robotics, artificial intelligence, genetics, neuroscience, and biotechnology hold the potential to radically transform our world for the better.

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MWC 2018 wrap-up: How mobile is reshaping the world

Andreas Bubenzer-Paim
Technology Banking
Circle of cell phones being used by young people.

The advent of 5G is going to make wired connections even more obsolete.

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Introducing Finlabs: Bank of the West, L’Atelier BNP Paribas seek startups

Posted by Newsroom
Corporate News
Two young professionals looking at & writing on sticky notes that are pasted on an office window.

This new U.S. program builds upon two years of focused trial work within the Commercial Banking Group (CBG).

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Fast and slow: Optimizing business payments in a changing landscape

Eileen Dignen
Cash Management
Business man checking his phone while standing outside in a busy commercial district.

You may be surprised to learn that adoption of faster payment options has been a bit slow, according to some recent research.

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