All Posts Tagged: Congress

U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Daily economic indicators continue to show the second-quarter U.S. economic rebound remains on track. However, beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.

Graph showing rise of President Trump's disapproval rating.The political drama in Washington, D.C.,intensified this week and has potentially damaged and/or delayed the Trump administration’s business-friendly economic policy agenda.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 19.

Key observations:

  • President Trump’s ratings are once again revisiting their lowest levels since he took office.
  • Republican lawmakers may be more willing to distance themselves from elements of the president’s tax reform and budget plan — for example, whether to make the tax cuts revenue-neutral or not.
  • Measures of stock market volatility and credit risk show a level of complacency that seems oddly out of place with the dire political headlines of the day.
  • This week’s events call our GDP 2018 forecast into question and tip the balance of risks more toward the downside than the upside in my view.

Click here to read my full report.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Where there is smoke, is there fire?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy street view of US Capitol from a few blocks away.

There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act. Risks that the new administration and Congress could get side-tracked from their tax cut, infrastructure, and deregulation agenda are on the rise. For more on […]

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Small business confidence catches fire

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent spike in small business optimism

Small businesses appear downright euphoric about the prospects of a Trump Administration and Republican-controlled Congress taking the reins in Washington.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: Don’t mix politics with pleasure

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Capitol in Washington, D.C., as dusk arrives and lights illuminate the building, with its reflection in a pool in the foreground.

While the two heavyweight contenders praised themselves and traded verbal blows, the markets have been churning on lackluster economic data coupled with a divided Federal Reserve.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: Key insights from Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Eagle sculpture above the stone wall inscribed "Federal Reserve" on the institution

Today Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen kept her options open; there was no additional information on timing or number of Fed interest rate hikes this year.

Read More ›