Daily economic indicators continue to show the second-quarter U.S. economic rebound remains on track. However, beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 19.
- President Trump’s ratings are once again revisiting their lowest levels since he took office.
- Republican lawmakers may be more willing to distance themselves from elements of the president’s tax reform and budget plan — for example, whether to make the tax cuts revenue-neutral or not.
- Measures of stock market volatility and credit risk show a level of complacency that seems oddly out of place with the dire political headlines of the day.
- This week’s events call our GDP 2018 forecast into question and tip the balance of risks more toward the downside than the upside in my view.
There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act. Risks that the new administration and Congress could get side-tracked from their tax cut, infrastructure, and deregulation agenda are on the rise. For more on […]Read More ›
Small businesses appear downright euphoric about the prospects of a Trump Administration and Republican-controlled Congress taking the reins in Washington.Read More ›
While the two heavyweight contenders praised themselves and traded verbal blows, the markets have been churning on lackluster economic data coupled with a divided Federal Reserve.Read More ›
Today Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen kept her options open; there was no additional information on timing or number of Fed interest rate hikes this year.Read More ›