All Posts Tagged: construction

U.S. Outlook: Thanksgiving comes early this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Rather than a scary October payroll report appropriate for the Halloween season, investors and analysts received an early Thanksgiving surprise.

closeup on palate of food delivered by grocery employee.Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 250K in October, up from 118K in September, and well above the consensus forecast of 200K jobs.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 2.

Key observations:
  • Clearly, there was a strong bounce back from Hurrican Florence baked into October’s job gains.
  • Bad weather prevented 198K people from working last month.
  • The U.S. job growth engine shows no sign of slowing down as yet. This raises the odds of another rate hike from the Fed in December.
  • Low unemployment rates finally appear to be lifting average hourly earnings growth. For the first time in this expansion, the average hourly earnings growth moved above 3.0%.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.

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Instant Analysis: November Payroll report reveals robust job creation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Overall, a solid payroll report very much in line with our expectations.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for September

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Four businesspeople talking in a busy plaza of a major international city.

We believe any monthly gain above 150K is a good number and won’t force the FOMC to deviate from its plan to raise rates again before the end of the year.

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