All Posts Tagged: construction

U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

If you merely glanced at the February jobs gain (313K), you would be forgiven for concluding the U.S. labor market is on fire and the economy is in danger of overheating and burning to the ground.

Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 9.

Key observations:
  • This was the strongest monthly gain in nonfarm payrolls since July 2016.
  • Despite sizzling job growth in recent months, signs of an overheating labor market were just not there.
  • Average hourly earnings increased only 0.1% in February, and the year-on-year gain slipped to 2.6% from a downwardly revised 2.8% gain in January.
  • The February jobs report makes another Fed funds rate hike in March a near certainty, in my opinion.

 

Read my full report.

 

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.

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Instant Analysis: November Payroll report reveals robust job creation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Overall, a solid payroll report very much in line with our expectations.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for September

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Four businesspeople talking in a busy plaza of a major international city.

We believe any monthly gain above 150K is a good number and won’t force the FOMC to deviate from its plan to raise rates again before the end of the year.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Carpenter varnishing a large board

A better-than-expected employment report for July caps a two-month period of robust U.S. job gains.

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