It’s been a long time coming, but more consumers are finally riding the wave of plentiful job opportunities, rising incomes, and improving net worth. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the current readings of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence has only been at these nose‐bleed levels a handful of times over the last 40 years, notably in the late 1980’s and the late 1990’s.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 30.
- More consumers expect their income to increase rather than decrease over the next six months.
- Ahead of next week’s U.S. payroll report for June, we are forecasting an acceleration in non‐farm job growth to around 168K from a May increase of 138K jobs.
- First quarter real consumer spending growth was revised higher this week to 1.1% from an initial estimate of 0.3% growth.
Everyone seems to be feeling pretty good about the economy and the markets, barring a sneaking suspicion about stock valuations.Read More ›
Alan Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the disconnect between stock market gains and economic fundamentals in the late 1990s. Is it time to use the phrase again? For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 31. Key observations: […]Read More ›
The animal spirits that lifted the market to each new high may have hit their limits, as the S&P 500 Index has failed to advance the past few trading sessions and consumer confidence may be starting to lose momentum.Read More ›
Here’s my take on the key numbers on the housing market this week.Read More ›