The U.S. economy is in a good place right now.
Second quarter’s GDP growth estimate looks like it will be revised up to around 4.4% next week, from 4.2% and an initial reading of 4.1%.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 21.Key observations:
- There are growing signs of moderation in some U.S. economic indicators, such as home sales and prices, but business sentiment and consumer confidence remain high.
- We expect a more upbeat assessment of current economic conditions from the FOMC statement and from Powell’s press conference comments.
- There is nothing to stop the FOMC from raising the fed funds target range once more at this meeting (next week) and signaling more rate hikes ahead. We think the next one will happen in December.
The May jobs report revealed impressive strength and breadth in U.S. job creation that blew away most economists’ expectations.Read More ›
Black Friday, the cornerstone of the domestic retail calendar, has amalgamated into a black weekend, Thursday night, or even an online experience that allows consumers to avoid the annual pilgrimage to the brick and mortar shopping mall. The question is whether this year’s sales will be bigger, better, and more extravagant than last year or will fickle spenders force stores to reverse course; close earlier, open later, and/or push shoppers to seek online deals.Read More ›
It’s been a long time coming, but more consumers are finally riding the wave of plentiful job opportunities, rising incomes, and improving net worth. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the current readings of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence has only been at these nose‐bleed levels a handful of times over the last 40 years, notably […]Read More ›
Everyone seems to be feeling pretty good about the economy and the markets, barring a sneaking suspicion about stock valuations.Read More ›