All Posts Tagged: consumer confidence

U.S. Outlook: Consumers remain a confident bunch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

It’s been a long time coming, but more consumers are finally riding the wave of plentiful job opportunities, rising incomes, and improving net worth. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the Graph showing sharp increase in consumer confidence between Oct 2009 and June 2017current readings of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence has only been at these nose‐bleed levels a handful of times over the last 40 years, notably in the late 1980’s and the late 1990’s.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 30.

Key observations:

  • More consumers expect their income to increase rather than decrease over the next six months.
  • Ahead of next week’s U.S. payroll report for June, we are forecasting an acceleration in non‐farm job growth to around 168K from a May increase of 138K jobs.
  • First quarter real consumer spending growth was revised higher this week to 1.1% from an initial estimate of 0.3% growth.

Click here to read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q1 strategy report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Aerial view of skyscrapers near the river in Shanghai

Everyone seems to be feeling pretty good about the economy and the markets, barring a sneaking suspicion about stock valuations.

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U.S. Outlook: Are confidence gains becoming delusional?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in consumer confidence

Alan Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the disconnect between stock market gains and economic fundamentals in the late 1990s. Is it time to use the phrase again? For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 31. Key observations: […]

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Investment Insights: Animal spirits flying too high?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Upward view of statue depicting an eagle with wings outstretched, with a little bit of the Federal Reserve building (Atlanta) behind it

The animal spirits that lifted the market to each new high may have hit their limits, as the S&P 500 Index has failed to advance the past few trading sessions and consumer confidence may be starting to lose momentum.

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Numbers Count: How liquid is your down payment?

Chad Royle
Posted by Chad Royle
Mortgage Banking
Young man at kitchen table with coffee, looking at financial documents.

Here’s my take on the key numbers on the housing market this week.

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