All Posts Tagged: consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: Trimming our GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Granted, there isn’t a lot of hard first-quarter economic data to hang our hat on at this point. With the U.S. government shutdown entering day 28, more and more important U.S. economic indicator releases are being National monuments and museums in Washington DC were closed during the U.S. governemnt shutdown in 2013.delayed by the shutdown.

Only the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve are still releasing data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Commerce Department have all halted their releases due to the government closure.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 18.

Key observations:
  • We’ve cut our Q1 U.S. GDP forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7, to reflect lost economic activity due to the prolonged government shutdown, as well as lost consumer spending resulting from the negative wealth effects from the Q4 stock market selloff.
  • We are penciling in a 0.3 percentage point hit to GDP from the government shutdown alone.
  • The measurable drop in household wealth will crimp consumer spending, especially for high-income households that are exposed to the stock market volatility.

Read my full report.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Estimating the economic impact of the market decline

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Economic crisis - Stock market graphs and charts - Financial and business background

The real world economic impacts from the recent stock market carnage could be substantial. Learn more in Scott Anderson’s U.S. Outlook.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Can the U.S. consumer keep up the pace?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Farmers market scene as several adults look over baskets of red, yellow, and orange tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables.

You could say the consumer has been the engine of U.S. economic growth lately.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Why recent GDP growth doesn’t look sustainable

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.

Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Consumers are on a roll

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowds of shoppers walking in a mall, focusing on their walking legs.

Consumer spending has been robust. But how long can it last?

Read More ›