All Posts Tagged: consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: Consumers are on a roll

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Consumers are on a roll. But how long can it last? Consumer spending has been robust. Growth in nominal retail sales, including food services from a year ago, was 6.6% in August and has exceeded 6.0% over the last four months. Crowds of shoppers walking in a mall, focusing on their walking legs.

This is a clear sign of household strength and resilience at this stage of the expansion.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on September 14.

Key observations:

  • Annual growth in 2018 has averaged 6.1% through August compared to 4.1% over the same period in 2017.
  • Consumer confidence rose to an expansion high of 133.4 in August.
  • The fastest growing categories of retail spending have been gas stations (+20.3%), nonstore retailers (+10.4%), and restaurant and bars (+10.1%).
  • While personal savings rates still remain healthy, without faster real income growth to support it, consumer spending will inevitably slow.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy runs hot in the second quarter

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.

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U.S. Outlook: Q2 GDP is solid; trade a growing downside risk

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A container ship in the harbor in Asia

Now that we have the final Q1 GDP data in hand, what does it mean for the U.S. outlook going forward?

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U.S. Outlook: Strong consumer-led rebound in Q2 GDP anticipated

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Young, smiling man wearing an apron and holding a pen while sitting at a table and talking to a business woman.

Robust real GDP growth above 4% is expected in the second quarter of this year, driven by a sharp rebound in real consumer spending.

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U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

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