As recently as March, inflation appeared to be heating up. Fast forward to June, and the inflation landscape appears far different and the outlook for inflation far less certain.
- Consumer inflation has slowed almost in half to 1.6% from a 2.8% pace in February.
- Numerous core consumer inflation measures are also dropping, moving further away from the Fed’s medium-term target of around 2.0%.
- The big reason for the reversal of late comes down to ebbs and flows in energy and commodity prices.
- The bond market isn’t buying the Fed’s inflation forecasts.
- We continue to forecast consumer inflation next year at around 2.0%, but that is lower than we forecasted six months ago.
Overall this was a solid payroll report that reinforces the notion that the U.S. labor market remains a bright spot for the U.S. economic expansion.Read More ›
It’s been a long time coming, but more consumers are finally riding the wave of plentiful job opportunities, rising incomes, and improving net worth. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the current readings of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence has only been at these nose‐bleed levels a handful of times over the last 40 years, notably […]Read More ›
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U.S. GDP growth sputtered in the first quarter. This was the worst performance from the U.S. economy since the first quarter of 2014.Read More ›