All Posts Tagged: consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: Where did inflation go?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

As recently as March, inflation appeared to be heating up. Fast forward to June, and the inflation landscape appears far different and the outlook for inflation far less certain.

Graph showing rises and (recent) dip in consumer inflation trends.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 14.

Key observations:

  • Consumer inflation has slowed almost in half to 1.6% from a 2.8% pace in February.
  • Numerous core consumer inflation measures are also dropping, moving further away from the Fed’s medium-term target of around 2.0%.
  • The big reason for the reversal of late comes down to ebbs and flows in energy and commodity prices.
  • The bond market isn’t buying the Fed’s inflation forecasts.
  • We continue to forecast consumer inflation next year at around 2.0%, but that is lower than we forecasted six months ago.

Click here to read my full report.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Job growth back on track in June

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart showing growth in various job sectors in June.

Overall this was a solid payroll report that reinforces the notion that the U.S. labor market remains a bright spot for the U.S. economic expansion.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Consumers remain a confident bunch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing sharp increase in consumer confidence between Oct 2009 and June 2017

It’s been a long time coming, but more consumers are finally riding the wave of plentiful job opportunities, rising incomes, and improving net worth. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the current readings of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence has only been at these nose‐bleed levels a handful of times over the last 40 years, notably […]

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Fingers crossed, we need a bounce in GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing drop in G10 Surprise Economic INdex

The second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Why the Fed will look past weak Q1 GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in business spending growth

U.S. GDP growth sputtered in the first quarter. This was the worst performance from the U.S. economy since the first quarter of 2014.

Read More ›