All Posts Tagged: consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: Can the U.S. consumer keep up the pace?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. consumer is often the most important piece of our economic puzzle, making the difference between a solid economic expansion and a mediocre one.

Farmers market scene as several adults look over baskets of red, yellow, and orange tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables.You could say the consumer has been the engine of U.S. economic growth lately.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 9.

Key observations:
  • Since 1947 the consumer spending share of GDP has ranged from a low 58.9% in 1967 to 68.5% in 2011. The 2017 share was just below the 2011 all-time high at 68.4%.
  • Since May the gap between consumer spending growth and income growth has widened over time.
  • The consumer savings rate has declined for seven straight months since reaching 7.4% in February.
  • Our forecast is for annualized real consumer spending growth to decelerate from the current white-hot pace of 4.0% to 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Why recent GDP growth doesn’t look sustainable

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.

Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining.

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U.S. Outlook: Consumers are on a roll

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowds of shoppers walking in a mall, focusing on their walking legs.

Consumer spending has been robust. But how long can it last?

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U.S. Outlook: Economy runs hot in the second quarter

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.

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U.S. Outlook: Q2 GDP is solid; trade a growing downside risk

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A container ship in the harbor in Asia

Now that we have the final Q1 GDP data in hand, what does it mean for the U.S. outlook going forward?

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