All Posts Tagged: consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.But will it be enough to distract investors from the near-term political risks coming from Washington?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Aug. 25.

Key observations:

  • Job growth is sufficiently strong that the U.S. unemployment rate could drop again to an expansion low of 4.2% in August.
  • Many FOMC members could see this as a reason to stick with the plan of one more rate hike before end of the year, despite inflation holding below their targets.
  • For Q2 GDP, we are forecasting an upward revision of the initial 2.6% growth rate to an even stronger 2.9% annualized pace.
  • The U.S. consumer is back in the driver’s seat when it comes to U.S. economic performance.

 

Click here to read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. GDP rebounds to a respectable pace in Q2

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly GDP growth (actual and projected through next year)

The rebound was driven by a marked improvement in real consumer spending growth to a 2.8% annualized pace from a 1.9% pace in Q1.

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U.S. Outlook: Where did inflation go?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rises and (recent) dip in consumer inflation trends.

As recently as March, inflation appeared to be heating up.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth back on track in June

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart showing growth in various job sectors in June.

Overall this was a solid payroll report that reinforces the notion that the U.S. labor market remains a bright spot for the U.S. economic expansion.

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U.S. Outlook: Consumers remain a confident bunch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing sharp increase in consumer confidence between Oct 2009 and June 2017

It’s been a long time coming, but more consumers are finally riding the wave of plentiful job opportunities, rising incomes, and improving net worth. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the current readings of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence has only been at these nose‐bleed levels a handful of times over the last 40 years, notably […]

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