All Posts Tagged: consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: A softer start to the year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

After two consecutive quarters of more than 3.0% real GDP growth in 2017, you could be forgiven for starting to believe the hype of the administration’s 3.0 or 4.0% annual growth forecasts for the coming years.

Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.Unfortunately, the period of 3% GDP growth appears to already be in our rear-view mirror.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 16.

Key observations:

  • After a surge in spending in September, October, and November, consumers have grown stingy in December and January.
  • Bad weather in January could have contributed to the weakness in sales that month, but that isn’t the whole story, in our opinion.
  • In all fairness, we are probably not seeing the impact of the personal tax cuts passed in December in these retail sales numbers.
  • We’ve revised our real GDP forecast for the first quarter of 2018 down to 2.1%.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Headline GDP growth for Q4 comes in on the light side

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly GDP growth figures from 2015, with forecasts for 2018

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in the fourth quarter, following a 3.2% annualized growth rate in the third quarter.

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Investment Insights: Well that was taxing

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Line of various professional people waiting outside an office.

The benefits should be felt across the spectrum for tax payers, with some ultimately benefiting more than others.

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U.S. Outlook: What does 2018 have in store for us?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rebound of Eurozone economic activity

We think 2018 will be another year of above-average U.S. GDP growth.

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U.S. Outlook: Tax reform reaches the finish line

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing rise of debt as percentage of US GDP

This is largely a corporate tax cut bill with temporary personal income tax relief mixed in.

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