All Posts Tagged: consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: Behind the Q1 GDP headlines, and what it means for Q2

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

We were bracing for a soft Q1 GDP print this morning, primarily due to a sharp slowdown in real consumer spending in the first quarter.

Crowds of shoppers walking in a mall, focusing on their walking legs.We got the drop we forecast, as real consumer spending growth slumped to 1.1% from a 4.0% annualized growth rate in Q4.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 27.

Key observations:

  • The decline in consumer spending was driven by a 3.3% decline in durable goods spending, primarily motor vehicles.
  • Business equipment spending also came out on the weak side.
  • We expect the drop in real consumer spending growth in Q1 to be partially reversed in the second quarter as recharged savings, pent-up demand, and lower credit card balances entice consumers to spend more freely.
  • Our forecast for Q2 GDP growth improved to 3.0% from 2.6% prior to today’s release.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Keeping next week’s Q1 GDP report in perspective

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of a woman

Over the last three quarters, the U.S. economy and real GDP have been on a sprint, the latter rising at an annual average 3.06%.

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U.S. Outlook: What you need to know

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart that shows consumer spending trends.

Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: Trade fears mount

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large bundle of steel rods being lifted via crane off a stack of many bundled rods.

More signs emerged this week that the Goldilocks view of the U.S. economic outlook could be in for a serious challenge in the weeks ahead.

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U.S. Outlook: Is the economy accelerating or slowing down?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing different leading indicators for economic performance.

It’s not only the stock market that’s throwing off more mixed signals and increased volatility these days.

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