All Posts Tagged: consumer

U.S. Outlook: Should we worry about the consumer?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The short answer: not really.

Graph showing up-and-down trends of retail sales over the past several years.Despite weakness in January and February data, retail sales are still up a healthy 3.1% from a year ago.

For more details, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 18.

Key observations:
  • We forecast consumer spending will continue to drive this economic expansion forward.
  • Our current tracking estimate of U.S. Real GDP growth for the first quarter is 2.0%.
  • The combination of low gas prices and an improving housing market is driving increases in building-materials spending.
  • The latest job openings level is back near the cyclical highs of this economic expansion.
Click here to read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Keep one eye on the fundamentals

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rises and falls - especially recently - in U.S. gas prices.

It’s important to remember that the stock market and the oil market are not the U.S. economy.

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Numbers Count: Consumers take on more credit in October

Chad Royle
Posted by Chad Royle
Mortgage Banking
Asian woman in a blazer sitting at a desk near a row of windows while talking on the phone and looking at her credit card and laptop.

Here’s my take on the key numbers on the housing market this week.

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U.S. Outlook: A festive holiday forecast this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Bar chart showing annual holiday sales growth for the past six years.

Our forecast for holiday sales growth this year is 4.0%, which would make it the best year since 2012.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy is looking better in October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the decline in weekly jobless claims over recent months.

Following the slowdown of August and September, the economic data points so far for October suggest the U.S. is picking up some growth momentum.

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