All Posts Tagged: dot plot

U.S. Outlook: Is tighter monetary policy already beginning to bite?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The September FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed an upbeat assessment of current U.S. economic conditions and the outlook.

Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.At the same time, the Fed dismissed the downside risks to the U.S. economy from Hurricane Florence, the China-U.S. trade war, and foreign economic developments as having only a small net effect on U.S. real GDP growth.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 19.

Key observations:
  • It will still be quite some time before we see the impacts that the Fed tightening to date has had on our economic and financial conditions.
  • The September FOMC minutes commented in several places about rising equity prices and loose financial conditions in the marketplace as a vulnerability and risk to financial stability.
  • Interest-rate-sensitive sectors of our economy from housing to auto sales are already slowing in part due to higher interest rates.
  • From my chair, the FOMC dot plot median feels like an economist’s fairy tale.

Read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Facade of the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC on a sunny day.

The FOMC raised the fed funds target rate range another quarter percentage point today to between 1.50% and 1.75% and maintained its median forecast for three quarter-point rate hikes by the end of 2018 and 2019.

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U.S. Outlook: What we expect from the Federal Reserve next week

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise in total net worth of households.

Amid much anticipation, we expect the FOMC to vote next Wednesday to raise the Fed funds target rate range another quarter percentage point to between 1.25% and 1.50%.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC announces balance sheet unwind will begin in October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View of a eagle statue on Federal Reserve building in DC

As was widely telegraphed before the meeting, the committee decided to go ahead with the balance sheet normalization program in October.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decision & statement for February

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve at dusk.

There were few surprises in today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and statement to hold the fed funds target rate at between 0.50 and 0.75%.

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