All Posts Tagged: durable goods

U.S. Outlook: Why recent GDP growth doesn’t look sustainable

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Headline third-quarter GDP growth came in at a robust 3.5% after coming off of a sizzling 4.2% pace of growth in the second quarter.

Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.However, the foundation that this growth is built upon is looking a little shaky.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 26.

Key observations:
  • Robust consumer spending and inventory building drove the strong GDP growth last quarter.
  • Residential construction spending is already contracting, dropping at a 4.0% pace in the third quarter.
  • Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining, rather than ramping up.
  • We expect U.S. GDP growth to slow again in the fourth quarter to around a 2.4% pace, and continue to gradually slow in 2019.
Read my full report. Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: After weak growth, what’s next for 2016?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing fluctuation in trade balance of goods between January 2014 and May 2016

After slow growth in the first half of the year, what’s in store for real GDP in the quarters ahead?

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. growth has slowed considerably. Why?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly ups and downs of US GDP.

This is the third consecutive year the world’s largest economy would start off the year with dismal GDP growth.

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U.S. Outlook: Gearing up for the big week ahead

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
chart showing upward trend in S&P 500 stock price index.

An advanced estimate of first-quarter GDP and the April FOMC decision will be among the activities to watch next week.

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U.S. Outlook: Another leg down for manufacturing

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph shwing downward trend in manufacturing

From regional manufacturing surveys to durable good orders, the near-term outlook for U.S. manufacturing remains moribund.

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