All Posts Tagged: economic expansion

U.S. Outlook: Consumers are on a roll

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Consumers are on a roll. But how long can it last? Consumer spending has been robust. Growth in nominal retail sales, including food services from a year ago, was 6.6% in August and has exceeded 6.0% over the last four months. Crowds of shoppers walking in a mall, focusing on their walking legs.

This is a clear sign of household strength and resilience at this stage of the expansion.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on September 14.

Key observations:

  • Annual growth in 2018 has averaged 6.1% through August compared to 4.1% over the same period in 2017.
  • Consumer confidence rose to an expansion high of 133.4 in August.
  • The fastest growing categories of retail spending have been gas stations (+20.3%), nonstore retailers (+10.4%), and restaurant and bars (+10.1%).
  • While personal savings rates still remain healthy, without faster real income growth to support it, consumer spending will inevitably slow.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Teacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetables

The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions.

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U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our October report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Stream of corporate workers walking across a modern bridge in the financial district of London.

The U.S. economy hit an incredible record in October; it has now been in an expansion for its 100th month.

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