All Posts Tagged: economic expansion

U.S. Outlook: Can the U.S. consumer keep up the pace?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. consumer is often the most important piece of our economic puzzle, making the difference between a solid economic expansion and a mediocre one.

Farmers market scene as several adults look over baskets of red, yellow, and orange tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables.You could say the consumer has been the engine of U.S. economic growth lately.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 9.

Key observations:
  • Since 1947 the consumer spending share of GDP has ranged from a low 58.9% in 1967 to 68.5% in 2011. The 2017 share was just below the 2011 all-time high at 68.4%.
  • Since May the gap between consumer spending growth and income growth has widened over time.
  • The consumer savings rate has declined for seven straight months since reaching 7.4% in February.
  • Our forecast is for annualized real consumer spending growth to decelerate from the current white-hot pace of 4.0% to 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Consumers are on a roll

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowds of shoppers walking in a mall, focusing on their walking legs.

Consumer spending has been robust. But how long can it last?

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U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Teacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetables

The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions.

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U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our October report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Stream of corporate workers walking across a modern bridge in the financial district of London.

The U.S. economy hit an incredible record in October; it has now been in an expansion for its 100th month.

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