All Posts Tagged: economic growth

U.S. Outlook: Can the U.S. consumer keep up the pace?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. consumer is often the most important piece of our economic puzzle, making the difference between a solid economic expansion and a mediocre one.

Farmers market scene as several adults look over baskets of red, yellow, and orange tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables.You could say the consumer has been the engine of U.S. economic growth lately.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 9.

Key observations:
  • Since 1947 the consumer spending share of GDP has ranged from a low 58.9% in 1967 to 68.5% in 2011. The 2017 share was just below the 2011 all-time high at 68.4%.
  • Since May the gap between consumer spending growth and income growth has widened over time.
  • The consumer savings rate has declined for seven straight months since reaching 7.4% in February.
  • Our forecast is for annualized real consumer spending growth to decelerate from the current white-hot pace of 4.0% to 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
Read my full report.

 

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Philanthropy Awards spotlight: Remarks from Forest Whitaker

Jenny Flores
Posted by Jenny Flores
Corporate Social Responsibility
Forest Whitaker at the podium, speaking at the Philanthropy Awards

The programs I develop around young people aim to help communities that have been shattered by conflict and violence regain their capacity to rebound and to address their challenges by themselves.

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U.S. Outlook: Interest rates hit the floor

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing global bond yields are near record lows

Today’s low market rates suggest a weaker global economic outlook, looser monetary policy, and more deflationary pressures ahead.

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U.S. Outlook: Trouble abroad

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph of US surprise index trending upward in recent months.

On its own, the U.S. economy appears to be on a solid path for growth. But global outlook data suggests there are a few problem spots to watch.

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U.S. Outlook: Manufacturing rebound is on track

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Delinquency_Rates

Recent economic data points to further strengthening of the U.S. economy this year. We see plenty of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for U.S. manufacturing, and that revitalization of the manufacturing sector will eventually spill over into other sectors of the economy. Below are brief highlights of my weekly economic analysis, followed by […]

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