All Posts Tagged: economic surprises

U.S. Outlook: Market fears of near-term recession overblown

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

As recently as September when U.S. stocks were hitting new record highs, economic optimism was rampant and, in retrospect, probably overdone.

Busy work environment with stock traders concentrating on their computers.In my view, the markets are once again overreacting.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 14.

Key observations:
  • Yes, the global economy is in what appears to be a synchronized slowdown.
  • Tighter monetary policy and financial conditions, fading fiscal stimulus, and slowing global growth will all conspire to slow down the economic freight train that has been the U.S. economy this year.
  • We forecast another quarter-point rate hike from the FOMC next week, bringing the fed funds target rate to a 2.25% to 2.50% range.
  • A recession may come by sometime in 2020, but this episode of market volatility isn’t it.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Positive economic surprises continue

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.

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