All Posts Tagged: economy

U.S. Outlook: A softer start to the year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

After two consecutive quarters of more than 3.0% real GDP growth in 2017, you could be forgiven for starting to believe the hype of the administration’s 3.0 or 4.0% annual growth forecasts for the coming years.

Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.Unfortunately, the period of 3% GDP growth appears to already be in our rear-view mirror.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 16.

Key observations:

  • After a surge in spending in September, October, and November, consumers have grown stingy in December and January.
  • Bad weather in January could have contributed to the weakness in sales that month, but that isn’t the whole story, in our opinion.
  • In all fairness, we are probably not seeing the impact of the personal tax cuts passed in December in these retail sales numbers.
  • We’ve revised our real GDP forecast for the first quarter of 2018 down to 2.1%.

 

Read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Back in the saddle again

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Two construction workers in hardhats looking up at a partially finished highway bridge.

Now that the dust has settled from the correction, we are more positive in our stance on stocks over the near-term.

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U.S. Outlook: Market volatility takes center stage

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent spike in stock market volatility.

After months of abnormally low financial market volatility, risk is suddenly a two-way street again.

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U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month.

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

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Investment Insights: Which weighs more — a black swan or gray rhino?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Lone black swan floating lazily on a pond.

Cautionary tales seem to have crept their way back into markets.

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