All Posts Tagged: economy

U.S. Outlook: Global economy firing on all cylinders

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

One of the reasons the FOMC felt comfortable going ahead with the balance sheet normalization plan and signaling another rate hike before the end of the year was the significant progress that has been made on global economic growth and the improving global economic outlook for 2018.

Graph showing growth in several major economies around the world.The global economy is now more or less firing on all cylinders.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 22.

Key observations:

  • Eurozone and U.K. economic strength have been some of the biggest surprises for the global economic outlook this year.
  • The Bank of England could be the next major central bank to start raising interest rates, perhaps as soon as November.
  • Japan’s economy is turning the corner. It is likely to continue to grow above trend over the next few years.
  • China’s hard landing fears have dissipated this year.

 

Click here to read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our August report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Wide shot of plaza in North Korea dominated by two huge statues for former leaders, with nearby soldiers dwarfed on the ground.

After the North Korean regime had threatened the U.S. with a missile strike, the VIX Index, which is considered a barometer for volatility, dropped only slightly.

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U.S. Outlook: Biggest FOMC meeting of the year on tap

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing GDP forecasts as affected by recent hurricanes.

We are calling this the biggest FOMC meeting of the year because of the impact it could have on interest rate and inflation expectations into 2018 and beyond.

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U.S. Outlook: Job report increases doubts about Fed rate hike path

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent trend in unemployment rate (monthly)

The August jobs report came in on the weak side, raising concerns that the Fed’s gradual tightening path could become glacial in the year ahead.

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Instant Analysis: GDP and ADP employment exceed market expectations

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Small group of colleagues looking at a strategy document as seen through a glass window with a hint of urban reflection

This raises the odds that nonfarm payroll gains for the month of August, released on Friday, could also surpass economists’ forecasts.

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