All Posts Tagged: economy

U.S. Outlook: No sign of an April bounce so far

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

We are just starting to get some U.S. economic indicators for April, but the preliminary signs are that weaker-than-expected data visible in March may be carrying over.

Graph showing recent drop in Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.So far the Empire Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index all came in weaker than consensus forecasts.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 21.

Key observations:

  • While industrial production growth in March exceeded economists’ estimates on gains in utilities production, the manufacturing production measure unexpectedly declined 0.4% last month.
  • Mortgage lending trends have also been less than stellar in April.
  • While the soft patch in economic activity appears to be lingering into April, there is no need to abandon expectations for somewhat stronger economic activity in the second half of the year.
  • There is little reason to expect significant change in the Fed’s roadmap for additional fed funds rate hikes this year and next.

Click here to read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q1 strategy report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Aerial view of skyscrapers near the river in Shanghai

Everyone seems to be feeling pretty good about the economy and the markets, barring a sneaking suspicion about stock valuations.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth slips in March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing parallel declines in unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate.

While the headline number was a disappointment, the details in the report revealed underlying labor market strength and momentum.

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Investment Insights: An extraordinary unwinding

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Rock of Gilbraltar shrounded by a large cloud at sunset looming over a nearby beach.

Markets are being heavily influenced by proposed policy changes and how those will sway economic growth.

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U.S. Outlook: Are confidence gains becoming delusional?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in consumer confidence

Alan Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the disconnect between stock market gains and economic fundamentals in the late 1990s. Is it time to use the phrase again? For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 31. Key observations: […]

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