All Posts Tagged: equities

U.S. Outlook: Dissecting the dots

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Every newspaper article on the Fed decision this week cited the downward migration of the median dot-plot from three hikes next year to just two hikes.

View of a eagle statue on Federal Reserve building in DCBut just looking at the median forecast gives one a false sense of precision about the future of U.S. interest rates.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 21.

Key observations:
  • The FOMC members neatly divide into three distinct camps when it comes to interest rate expectations for 2019.
  • The market appears to have come to a far different conclusion than the FOMC about the proper stance of monetary policy and interest rates.
  • It is important to note that markets get things wrong sometimes; they can overreact especially during times of market panic like we seem to be going through right now. But sometimes markets see our economic future before analysts do, or even before the Fed does.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Should we fear, fear?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Upward view of NYSE, decorated with wreaths and a Christmas tree at left.

We believe that the volatility of late has been a long overdue reaction to risks that have been present but are just now being fully priced into financial markets.

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Investment Insights: Trump’s trade truce timing

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Small stream of identical, new white cars driving off a large blue cargo ship at port.

While details of any deal have yet to be released, the trade war may be deescalating.

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Investment Insights: Are rates hinting at recession?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Car being assembled in a factory full of equipment

Equities jumped over a percent on Monday after President Trump tweeted that China would remove tariffs on U.S.-made cars, signaling headway in the tense U.S.-China trade dispute.

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Investment Insights: ‘Just below’

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Diagonal upward view of Federal Reserve building

Jerome Powell’s lunch presentation and speech Wednesday held those two small but significant words, “just below.”

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