All Posts Tagged: EU

U.S. Outlook: The labor market is hot. Is it getting too hot?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The May jobs report revealed impressive strength and breadth in U.S. job creation that blew away most economists’ expectations.

Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.Employers added 223K non-farm jobs in May — a big step up from April’s 159K gain.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 1.

Key observations:

  • If you remember only one number from today’s report, it ought to be 3.8%, which is the unemployment rate for May and the lowest in 18 years.
  • This labor market tightness is gradually moving the needle on national wage growth, too.
  • From the Fed’s perspective, we are absorbing labor market slack at an impressive pace that is not sustainable without fueling a jump in wage and price growth if it continues in the months ahead.
  • The probability of four rate hikes in 2018 would be a lot higher today if it weren’t for the downside risks in the second half of the year from an escalating trade war.

 

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Draghi trumps Yellen at Jackson Hole

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Pristine valley landscape in Jackson Hole, WYO, with snow-caped moutains in pthe banckround.

Federal Reserve officials and central bankers from around the world met last week at their annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to discuss the future of monetary policy and the global economy.

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Investment Insights: No summer doldrums for stocks

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
rear view of a woman sitting alone in shade under a table umbrella in an empty, sun-drenched urban plaza with a large fountain.

The summer heat and some hot earnings reports seem to be stoking the fire under the stock market.

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Investment Insights: Is the U.K. the next Singapore?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Traffic scene on London street at sunset, with Big Ben a short distance away.

While it hasn’t seen the same tabloid excitement as the Brexit, the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement has been in the works for over a decade.

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Investment Insights: The grass may be greener on the other side of Brexit

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Gray jigsaw puzzle pieces with a stray piece that has the British flag on it, with the EU logo underneath the puzzle.

There are still few details on the future of commerce between Britain and the rest of the European Union. There is a lot that could happen.

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