All Posts Tagged: Eurozone

U.S. Outlook: Have U.S. and global growth already peaked?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.

Graph showing economic surprise index in declineThat is not to say Q2 growth won’t accelerate from moribund Q1 rates.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 13.

Key observations:

  • Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index continues to deteriorate and turned net negative for the first time since last June.
  • The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, where industrial production has declined for three consecutive months for the first time since 2012.
  • If U.S. and global growth was about to gallop higher in the months ahead, why haven’t commodity futures prices budged?
  • The 2 year/10 year Treasury bond yield spread shrank to an expansion-low 47 basis points this week.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Tariffs step up as Yellen steps down

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Large cargo shop loaded with steel parked at a loading dock at dusk, as equipment lights are reflected in the water beneath the ship.

As a whole, earnings for S&P 500 companies have been remarkably strong this quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: Global economy firing on all cylinders

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing growth in several major economies around the world.

The Fed no longer has the crutch of a moribund global economy to blame for not embarking on monetary policy normalization.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our August report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Wide shot of plaza in North Korea dominated by two huge statues for former leaders, with nearby soldiers dwarfed on the ground.

After the North Korean regime had threatened the U.S. with a missile strike, the VIX Index, which is considered a barometer for volatility, dropped only slightly.

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Investment Insights: Big deals and bigger risks

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Female grocery employee surveying a large display of different fruits in the grocery store.

Just when investors thought mergers and acquisitions activity may be starting to slow, Amazon surprised markets with a $14 billion bid to buy grocer Whole Foods.

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