I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.
That is not to say Q2 growth won’t accelerate from moribund Q1 rates.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 13.
- Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index continues to deteriorate and turned net negative for the first time since last June.
- The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, where industrial production has declined for three consecutive months for the first time since 2012.
- If U.S. and global growth was about to gallop higher in the months ahead, why haven’t commodity futures prices budged?
- The 2 year/10 year Treasury bond yield spread shrank to an expansion-low 47 basis points this week.
As a whole, earnings for S&P 500 companies have been remarkably strong this quarter.Read More ›
The Fed no longer has the crutch of a moribund global economy to blame for not embarking on monetary policy normalization.Read More ›
After the North Korean regime had threatened the U.S. with a missile strike, the VIX Index, which is considered a barometer for volatility, dropped only slightly.Read More ›
Just when investors thought mergers and acquisitions activity may be starting to slow, Amazon surprised markets with a $14 billion bid to buy grocer Whole Foods.Read More ›