All Posts Tagged: exports

U.S. Outlook: Economy runs hot in the second quarter

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Second quarter real GDP pierced the 4.0% barrier, as we expected, with the advance estimate from the BEA coming in at a sizzling 4.1%.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYCThe above-trend growth was driven by a number of factors.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 27.

Key observations:
  • Consumer spending alone was responsible for 2.7 percentage points of the 4.1% gain in U.S. real GDP growth last quarter.
  • We forecast real consumer spending growth of around 2.4% annualized in the third quarter.
  • GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.
  • Bottom line: The 4.1% Q2 GDP print was impressive, but not sustainable in the quarters ahead.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Q2 GDP is solid; trade a growing downside risk

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A container ship in the harbor in Asia

Now that we have the final Q1 GDP data in hand, what does it mean for the U.S. outlook going forward?

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Investment Insights: The U.S. heavyweight comes out swinging

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Black-and-white shot of a male boxer

The fierce trade battle between the U.S. and China has begun to spill over into foreign and economic policies.

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Investment Insights: Trade war’s back on the menu

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Container ship (full) heading away from busy urban port on a blue-green sea.

After a brief lull filled with political summits, the U.S. and China are back at each other’s throats on trade.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q1 2018 report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Fortress wall in China with decorative 3-story structure on top.

Volatility, the word that strikes fear into the minds of nervous investors, returned in the first quarter of 2018.

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