All Posts Tagged: Fed funds

U.S. Outlook: Jobs report eases near-term recession concerns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Following the recent plunge in the ISM Manufacturing Index for December, investor fear of a near-term recession reached a fever pitch and Fed funds futures started pricing in a Fed rate cut in 2019.A woman posting a help wanted sign.

What a difference a day makes. The December employment report exceeded all analysts’ expectations.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 4.

Key observations:
  • The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December, a 2.5% annualized pace, bringing the three-month average of monthly job gains to a sizzling 254,000.
  • Job growth in the fourth quarter was the strongest in more than two years.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate increased by two-tenths of a percentage point in December to 3.9%. The number of unemployed persons increased by 276,000 last month. That was largely due to people voluntarily quitting.
  • Strong job growth and improving hourly earnings will keep consumer spending and the U.S. expansion going at a decent pace in the first half of 2019.

Read my full report.

Nonfarm employment YoY Growth

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decision & statement for November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve at dusk.

The FOMC statement released along with the decision today lays the necessary groundwork for a December rate hike decision.

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Instant Analysis: September FOMC statement and projections

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Shot of the Federal Reserve on a sunny day.

The FOMC is preparing the markets for another rate hike before the end of the year.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for August

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Overall, it’s a weaker-than-expected jobs report for August that showed renewed softening in the goods-producing side of the economy.

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Instant Analysis: April’s FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View from the street of the Federal Reserve building on a sunny day.

I believe the FOMC took some very minor baby steps today toward paving the way toward another rate hike before too long.

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